The Bitcoin price does not just move randomly. There is a lot more behind the scene including the fluctuating market cycles and deep financial data that influences the Bitcoin rates.
No one can be 100% accurate about the Bitcoin price prediction. However, some key indicators can help you better understand the upcoming patterns in price changes.
Whether you want to stay updated with the Bitcoin price USD or Bitcoin price AUD, these metrics can give you a clear insight to navigate the crypto market with more confidence and less guessing. Let’s go through this article and explore the indicators that can predict the next Bitcoin price move.
Key Indicators Signalling the Next Big Bitcoin Price Move
Many factors claim to have an impact on the Bitcoin market but not all of them stand the test on multiple cycles in the market. Here are the key indicators with proven power for Bitcoin price prediction that can truly help you to optimize your trading and investment strategies.
- Pi Cycle Top
The Pi Cycle Top has turned out to be one of the most accurate indicators in the crypto space and we have seen some good reasons for its reputation. It has accurately predicted some major peaks in the Bitcoin price history. The Pi Cycle Top was developed by a well-known crypto analyst, Philip Swift who is also the founder of a crypto analytic website, LookintoBitcoin.
This indicator works by triggering a “Top signal” when the 111-day moving average of Bitcoin crosses above twice the moving average of 350-days. As of early 2025, the gap in these moving averages is narrowing again but have not crossed yet indicating that the current cycle still has time to run.
However, if the Bitcoin price USD starts going over the 350-day average, it may be a warning sign for an overheated crypto market. The tool might not be 100% accurate but it’s worth following to make informed investments.
- Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model
Using the S2F model is a popular and reliable way to estimate where the Bitcoin Prices are heading to in the future. This model is based on a simple idea: scarcity of Bitcoin drives a raise in the Bitcoin prices AUD. To understand it, you have to know about these two terms.
- Stock which refers to the total amount of Bitcoin in the current circulation.
- Flow is the amount of new Bitcoins that are mined each year.
Now you divide the value of stock by flow to get the S2F ratio. The higher the ratio is, the scarcity of Bitcoins. In the past, there have been strong upward moves in the Bitcoin price USD after a raise in the S2F value.
In the current crypto cycle, Bitcoin mining has slowed down and fewer coins are entering in the system which is pushing up the S2F ratio. If it continues like that, we will see a long-term growth in the Bitcoin price including both Bitcoin price USD and Bitcoin price AUD in their respective market.
- MVRV Z-Score
With MVRV Z-score you can easily spot when the Bitcoin price is getting out of line, either going too high or too low from its normal historical value. So, it is an effective way of realising if the Bitcoin price is behaving abnormally and estimating their real worth.
Here is how you can calculate MVRV Z-score.
- Start by calculating the market value of Bitcoin by multiplying the total number of Bitcoin in circulation to the current Bitcoin price.
- Now, calculate the realised value of Bitcoin by summing up the prices at which each coin was last moved. This value is usually available online for easy access.
- Find the difference between both values and divide it by the standard deviation of historical Bitcoin prices to get the MVRV Z-score.
Why does MVRV Z-score matter?
It helps the potential investors to get a clear understanding of whether the market is undervalued or overvalued. Here’s how it works:
- If the score is above 6.9, it indicates that the Bitcoin market is likely overvalued.
- If the score goes below 0.1, the value of Bitcoin drops indicating a good time to buy Bitcoin.
For the Aussie seasoned investors, this metric gives a data-driven insight into the Bitcoin price AUD enabling them to plan their next move in the crypto sector.
Final Words
Watching charts is not enough to track the Bitcoin price as you must know what is happening behind the scene. Indicators like Pi Cycle Top, S2F Model, and MVRV Z-score can give you valuable clues about where the market is heading next to make better investment decisions.
None of these have 100% certainty but they can give a clearer and data-driven estimation of the current dynamics while predicting some potential turning points. So, whether you want to stay updated about the Bitcoin price USD or Bitcoin price AUD, these metrics can help you to cut through the noise and make efficient moves in the crypto market.
